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IMF Lifts China Growth Forecast

The International Monetary Fund raised China’s economic growth forecast for this year and next, citing a stronger-than-expected Q3 outturn and recent policy announcements.

Gross domestic production is projected to grow by 5.4 percent this year and growth is forecast to slow to 4.6 percent next year amid “the continued weakness in the property sector and subdued external demand”, the IMF said in a report on conclusion of the Article IV Consultation mission visit, on Tuesday.

“These projections reflect upward revisions of 0.4 percentage points in both 2023 and 2024 relative to October WEO projections due to a stronger-than-expected Q3 outturn and recent policy announcements,” IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said.

In the October World Economic Outlook report, the IMF had projected China’s growth at 5.0 percent and 4.2 percent this year and next, citing the lower investment in the country amid the property sector crisis.

“The Chinese economy is on track to meet the government’s 2023 growth target, reflecting a strong post-COVID recovery,” the IMF said. Core inflation is forecast to climb to 2.1 percent by end-2024 as output gap continues to narrow. “Over the medium term, growth is projected to gradually decline to about 31/2 percent by 2028 amid headwinds from weak productivity and population aging,” Gopinath said.

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