With the Fed on the sidelines, end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing and quarterly options expiration are likely to be the key forces driving the market. As of the 9/14/23 close, DJIA is up 0.53% this September. S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 are all still in the red. Except for DJIA, performance this September has been below average. This potentially does not bode well for the second half of September.
Over the last 21 years, the market has tended to peak on or around the 11th trading day of September (September 18 this year). The average decline from mid-month through the end of the month has been around 2%. We maintain our restrained outlook for the remainder of September and into October. Inflation’s cooling trend is being challenged by rising energy prices and geopolitical concerns are numerous.