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NASDAQ’s Q4 Rally From October’s Low


Yesterday we posted NASDAQ’s Q4 Rally from the Sep/Oct Low. This
year we have hit the low in October, so here are NASDAQ’s Q4 Rally stat’s from October
lows. Since 1971, there has been a NASDAQ Yearend Rally 98.1% of the time, and
its average advance has been 13.1%. We define the Yearend Rally here as the gain from
NASDAQ’s October closing low through its high in November or December. 

best Yearend rally was an amazing 54.5% in 1998. And even when we review
NASDAQ’s performance from the same October low through the last day of the
year, NASDAQ has been nearly as strong, advancing 46 of 52 years or 88.5% of
the time with an average gain of 9.5%. Only one (2007) of the six losses was a
pre-election year.


Buy in October, and Get Your Portfolio Sober

Octoberphobia strikes again but fear not. Our Tactical
Seasonal MACD Buy signal has triggered. Market seasonality has turned bullish,
and October has historically been a good time to buy. Our bullish outlook for
Q4 remains intact. The market’s pullback/correction has most likely run its
course, the seasonal low is in, and the market is likely to begin a new trend
higher. Weakness can be considered an opportunity to accumulate new long
positions for the “Best Months.”

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