November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-two DJIA and NASDAQ (since 1971) month. November is best for S&P 500 (since 1950), Russell 1000 (since 1979), and Russell 2000 (since 1979). Average performance in all year ranges from 1.7% from DJIA and S&P 500 to a solid 2.3% by Russell 2000.
In pre-election years, November’s performance is noticeably weaker. DJIA has advanced in 10 of the last 18 pre-election years since 1950 with an average gain of 0.5%. S&P 500 has been up in 11 of the past 18 pre-election years, also gaining on average a rather paltry 0.5%. Small-caps and techs perform better with Russell 2000 climbing in 7 of the past 11 pre-election years, averaging 1.4%. NASDAQ has been up in 8 of the last 13 pre-election year Novembers with an average 1.2% gain. Contributing to pre-election year November’s weaker performance are sizable declines in 1987, 1991 and 2007.
It is not too late to meet Jeff, live and in-person at the MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando October 29-31 and the 2023 New Orleans Investment Conference November 1-4. Octoberphobia has struck again, but October has historically been a good month to buy. Our Tactical Seasonal MACD Buy signal has triggered. Join Jeff to discuss current events and the market’s moves.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today for a Free 7-Day Trial to Almanac Investor to continue reading our latest market analysis and trading recommendations. Get a full run down of seasonal tendencies that occur throughout each month of the year in an easy-to-read calendar graphic with important economic release dates highlighted, Daily Market Probability Index bullish and bearish days, market trends around options expiration and holidays. In addition, the Monthly Vital Statistics Table combines stats for the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and puts them all in a single location available at the click of a mouse.