Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur is aligning quite well
this year with late September seasonal weakness and the notoriously treacherous
week after quarterly options expiration, AKA Triple Witching. It’s a few days
before FOMC with a market jittery on hotter inflation data.
Rosh Hashanah lands on Saturday 9/16 this year so our stats
us the close the day before. This is right at the mid-month peak of the typical
September pattern. Yom Kippur falls on 9/25 which is the 16th
trading day of the month, right around the seasonal monthly low point.
The thesis is that folks sell positions on Rosh Hashanah the
first of the Days of Awe to rid themselves of financial commitments and then
return to the market after Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. It is no
coincidence that this coincides with the seasonal September/October weakness.
The market has been tracking the 4-year cycle and seasonal
trends to a T this year and the past 3. So this should make a great entry for
the Q4 pre-election year rally.