A reading on leading U.S. economic indicators fell by more than expected in the month of September, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Thursday.
The Conference Board said its leading economic index slid by 0.7 percent in September after falling by a revised 0.5 percent in August.
Economists had expected the leading economic index to decrease by 0.4 percent, matching the drop originally reported for the previous month.
“In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board said the leading economic index was down 3.4 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, an improvement from its 4.6 percent contraction over the previous six months
“Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead,” said Zabinska-La Monica.
“So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation,” she added. “Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.”